DailyDAC Market Summary for Seven Day Period Ending March 22, 2026

Market Watch: Week of March 17–22, 2026

DailyDAC’s Sentiment Score: 3.3/10. If last week felt like the market was holding its breath, this week the oxygen left the room.

This was not a gradual widening so much as a repricing. Credit spreads widened, oil surged amid the Strait of Hormuz disruption and broader Middle East escalation, and risk appetite shifted from broadly constructive to distinctly selective. Buyers are still there, but they’re choosing carefully– and passing more often.

The Federal Reserve did not offer relief. On March 18, it held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, while its updated projections showed only one cut this year and lifted 2026 inflation expectations to 2.7% (headline and core). Powell acknowledged that job creation has slowed to essentially zero, but gave no meaningful signal that easing is imminent. So… he said the quiet part out loud– job creation is essentially zero– and then reminded everyone that the Fed is in no rush to do anything about it. Comforting.

For refi-risk names, that’s a difficult combination: a primary market that remains largely shut and a secondary market that’s open, but only for stronger issuers. Capital is available, but increasingly only for those who can show they don’t urgently need it.

Private credit is no longer a stabilizing side story; it’s part of the transmission mechanism for stress. Morningstar DBRS reports that distressed exchanges now account for 94% of downgrades to default or selective default in the trailing 12 months through February 2026, and the 2026 maturity wall is forcing real-time outcomes rather than abstract debate.

Amend, extend, equitize… or file. If that sounds like the stages of grief, it’s because it basically is, except nobody gets to bargaining anymore because the lenders already did that in 2024.

Filing data reflects the same pressure. Epiq reported that commercial Chapter 11 filings rose 67% year over year in February, to 814 from 487, while Subchapter V elections surged 91%. Some of that increase is related-entity noise (a handful of large proceedings that drag their affiliates into the count), but the broader signal is hard to miss: more companies are running out of flexibility at the same time that liquidity is getting more selective.

The throughline is straightforward. This is still not systemic distress, but it’s no longer neatly contained. Capital remains available, but only for stronger credits (and the threshold for what qualifies as “strong” is rising).

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