The week split in two. The first half was an inflation scare. The second was a relief rally.
May CPI landed June 10 at 4.2% year-over-year, the hottest reading since April 2023. The driver was not broad price pressure. It was energy. Headline rose 0.5% on a 3.9% jump in energy and a 7% surge in gasoline, while core held at a contained 2.9%. The maturity wall is being repriced by the cost of fuel, not by a wage-price spiral.
Then the tape turned. By June 15, the U.S. and Iran had reached a preliminary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil fell nearly 5% to a two-month low, equities ran to records, and the 10-year settled near 4.48%. For refi-risk credits, the road just got a little easier.
The in-court tape stayed busy. Sleep Number’s billion-dollar Chapter 11 launched a Section 363 sale to Sleep Country Canada; Danskammer’s gas-fired plant filed in Delaware; and QVC’s prepack curdled into a contested confirmation fight, with the U.S. Trustee and preferred holders dug in over the intercompany settlement.
Our 4.2/10 reflects a still-stressed market that caught a late-week break. We’ll be watching for the June 17th FOMC decision.
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